Bitcoin is holding a critical Fibonacci support level, but analysts warned that a break could trigger losses down to April lows of $76,000.
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Bitcoin is currently hovering at a critical technical level that needs to be defended to prevent major losses, according to crypto analyst “Daan Crypto Trades.”
He was referring to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement zone, which serves as a key area of support and resistance during market cycles.
“I think this is a key area for the bulls to defend,” he said, observing that a break below it could result in a Bitcoin (BTC) fall to April lows around $76,000.
“It’s also pretty much the last major support before testing the April lows again, which would break this high time frame market structure.”
Late on Sunday, Bitcoin was hit with another short leverage flush, with leveraged positions being liquidated on both sides. The asset fell below $88,000 briefly before quickly bouncing back above $91,500.
“This is another example of manipulation on the low-liquidity weekend to wipe out both leveraged longs and shorts,” commented “Bull Theory.”
All eyes are on the Fed meeting this week
The Federal Open Market Committee’s monetary-policy meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday will conclude with a decision on rates, with a 0.25% cut widely expected.
Crypto markets have lost momentum since the October cut, as Fed Chair Jerome Powell “signaled a non-linear, data-dependent easing path rather than a clear-cutting cycle,” 10x Research head Markus Thielen said in a note shared with Cointelegraph.
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He added that the market now expects a 25-basis-point cut on Dec. 10, followed by a cautious tone, “which would mirror October’s hawkish execution and sustain mild pressure into year-end.”
“With volumes already depressed and ETF flows negative, upside participation remains thin while the $70,000–$100,000 BTC range holds and implied volatility continues to compress, leaving downside risk more pronounced than upside.”
Fed outlook statement will be key
Apollo Capital’s Henrik Andersson echoed that sentiment, telling Cointelegraph that a Fed rate cut this week was already priced in, but the key for market direction will be the outlook statement. He remained cautiously optimistic for next year.
“However, with the Fed chairman being replaced in May next year, we will likely get more interest rate cuts in 2026, which should be supportive for risk assets, including crypto.”
Nick Ruck, the director of LVRG Research, agreed, telling Cointelegraph that in addition to the Fed meeting, upcoming jobs and inflation data releases “could unlock renewed liquidity inflows and propel a broader market rebound if they align with expectations for continued monetary easing.”
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