Bitcoin rebounds on Japan rate hike as Arthur Hayes sees dollar at 200 yen

Bitcoin (BTC) aimed for $88,000 on Friday after Japan’s central bank raised interest rates to 30-year highs.

Key points:

• Bitcoin joins US stocks futures heading higher in a curiously bullish reaction to Japan’s interest-rate hike.

• Commentators argue that no further hikes will happen due to economic forces.

• Bitcoin continues to hammer out a bottom on longer timeframes.

Arthur Hayes eyes BTC price, yen surge

Data from Cointelegraph Markets and TradingView showed 2.5% BTC price gains versus the daily open.

In line with expectations, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) hiked rates to around 0.75% on the day, marking their highest levels in three decades and ending the country’s latest period of “cheap” money.

Against a backdrop of global central-bank policy easing, Japan’s move stood out. While the hike was notionally a headwind for crypto and risk assets, reactions were optimistic.

“Don’t fight the BOJ: -ve real rates is the explicit policy,” Arthur Hayes, former CEO of crypto exchange BitMEX, told X followers. 

“$JPY to 200, and $BTC to a milly.”

Hayes was one of several commentators who saw the hike as ultimately bullish for asset holders.

Continuing, the research project Temple 8 Research flagged an emerging standoff between market expectations and economic reality in Japan.

“The market sees a hawkish pivot. We see a political ceiling,” it summarized in a blog post last week.

Temple 8 predicted that rates would not rise again before 2027 to protect the yen and avoid increased interest payments on Japan’s latest $140 billion stimulus package.

“You cannot floor the gas (Fiscal Stimulus) while slamming the brakes (Rate Hikes),” the post added. 

“If rates go to 1.5%, interest payments on this new debt explode.”

Bitcoin lacks “true capitulation event”

Bitcoin thus joined US stocks futures heading higher ahead of Friday’s Wall Street open. 

Related: Bitcoin institutional buys flip new supply for the first time in 6 weeks

At the time of writing, Nasdaq 100 futures were up 1.5%, while the S&P 500 sought a rebound after flat performance.

“With participation remaining strong some measures of investor sentiment shifting back to showing fear, that’s a positive backdrop to see a rally in the final weeks of the year,” trading resource Mosaic Asset Company forecast in a blog post Thursday.

“While the S&P 500 is trading weak recently, the second half of December tends to be positive from a historical seasonal standpoint.”

At the same time, BTC/USD hit a low of $84,390 amid volatility following the surprise US inflation data.

Traders remained highly cautious, with calls for further support retests commonplace on social media.

Possible quick test of 80K underway. $BTCUSD pic.twitter.com/KGL61fKOwD

— Aksel Kibar, CMT (@TechCharts) December 18, 2025

“Bitcoin is currently hammering out a bottom, but the process is far from over,” onchain analytics platform Checkonchain warned on the day.

Checkonchain singled out $81,000, the cost basis for the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), as a key line in the sand.

It added that the market was yet to witness a “true capitulation event.”

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