Bitfinex says “extreme deleveraging” and other indicators as factors that could help Bitcoin hold its ground and potentially move higher.
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Bitcoin could extend its recent rebound after posting an 8% daily gain on Wednesday, with crypto analysts pointing to signs that a local bottom may already be in.
“The combination of extreme deleveraging, capitulation among short-term holders, and early signs of seller exhaustion has created the conditions for a stabilisation phase and a relief bounce,” Bitfinex analysts said in a report on Tuesday.
The comments came shortly before Bitcoin (BTC) rallied nearly 8% on Wednesday, briefly pushing toward $94,000. At the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading at $91,440, according to CoinMarketCap.
Bitcoin running on “leaner leverage base”
Bitfinex said that the market is now operating on a “leaner leverage base,” reducing the chances of a possible sudden, liquidation market drawdown.
On Oct. 10, roughly $19 billion was wiped out of what many market participants described as an overleveraged market, triggering a broader sell-off that pushed Bitcoin and the wider crypto market into a downtrend, with Bitcoin’s price bottoming near $82,000 on Nov. 21.
“This configuration strengthens the case that the market’s remaining leverage is relatively well-contained, reducing systemic fragility and improving the prospects for a more stable consolidation phase,” he said.
The price pullback so late in the year, followed by a rebound, pushed more Bitcoin holders toward the idea that the four-year cycle is no longer relevant, which would have placed Bitcoin’s cycle price top around its October all-time highs of $125,100.
Bitcoin “is not like past cycles,” says analyst
It is still unclear how Bitcoin will finish the year, given December has historically been a quieter month for Bitcoin, with an average return of just 4.69% since December 2013, according to CoinGlass.
However, recent price action has not followed seasonal trends, with November falling 17.67% despite historically being Bitcoin’s strongest month on average, delivering returns of 41.12%.
Some still believe the move higher could extend into next year.
Related: BlackRock’s Fink calls Bitcoin an ‘asset of fear’, softens crypto stance
Bitcoin analyst PlanC said in an X post on Thursday, “This Bitcoin cycle is NOT like past cycles.”
“I have been warning you all and explaining this for well over a year now. Hopefully, you were paying attention,” PlanC said.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin analyst Quinten Francois said in an X post on the same day, “Bitcoin is closer to the bottom than to the top.”
BitMine chair Tom Lee recently said he is confident that Bitcoin can reclaim $100,000 before the end of the year.
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