Bitcoin price hit a new 2023 high on Dec.1 and multiple altcoins are following suit. Is the crypto market preparing for a Santa Claus rally?
Price Analysis
Bitcoin (BTC) rallied about 9% in November, with $38,000 proving to be a difficult obstacle to cross. Buyers have repeatedly tried to maintain the price above $38,000, but the bears have held their ground. Historically, December has been a mixed month. Coinglass data shows that in the past five years, Bitcoin rose only in 2020, but the extent of the rise at 46.92% was impressive. The bulls will try to replicate at least a part of that performance this year.
Entering into the new year, several analysts are bullish on Bitcoin. In a Nov. 28 research note, Standard Chartered said that the possibility of the earlier-than-expected approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds could boost the price of Bitcoin to $100,000 before end-2024.
Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz also sounded upbeat about Bitcoin while speaking to Bloomberg on Nov. 29. He said that the marketing team of asset managers whose ETFs are approved will try to convince people to invest in Bitcoin, which could boost adoption. Additionally, the Federal Reserve cutting rates may act as a further trigger that could send Bitcoin’s price near the all-time high by this time next year.
Could Bitcoin sustain above $38,000 and clear the path for a rally to $40,000, or will bears again play spoilsport?
Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin price analysis
The repeated retest of a resistance level tends to weaken it. After several failed attempts, the bulls have kicked the price higher on Dec. 1. This indicates the resumption of the uptrend.
The rally above $37,980 completes an ascending triangle pattern. The BTC/USDT pair could next rise to $40,000, which is again likely to act as a formidable resistance. If this level is scaled, the pair may reach the pattern target of $41,160. The rising moving averages and the relative strength index (RSI) above 65 indicate that bulls are in control.
This optimistic view will be invalidated in the near term if the price turns down and dips below the uptrend line. That could invalidate the bullish setup, pulling the price down to the solid support at $34,800. A break below this level will signal that the bears are back in the game.
Ether price analysis
Ether (ETH) rebounded off the 20-day EMA ($2,019) on Nov. 30, indicating that buyers are defending the level with vigor.
The bulls will try to push the price to the overhead resistance at $2,200. This remains the key level to keep an eye on in the near term. If buyers bulldoze their way through, the ETH/USDT pair will complete an ascending triangle pattern. This bullish setup has a target objective at $3,400.
The 20-day EMA is the important support on the downside. A break below this level will be the first sign that the bulls are losing their grip. The pair may then decline to the 50-day SMA ($1,874).
BNB price analysis
BNB (BNB) has been trading inside the tight range between $223 and $239 for the past few days. This shows uncertainty among the bulls and the bears.
The downsloping 20-day EMA ($234) and the RSI in the negative area suggest that the bears are in command. Any recovery attempt is likely to face selling at the 20-day EMA. If the price turns down from this level, the possibility of a drop below $223 increases. That may start a decline to $203.
Instead, if buyers shove the price above the 20-day EMA, the BNB/USDT pair may rise to $239. A break and close above this level could start a rally toward $265.
XRP price analysis
XRP (XRP) has been clinging to the 20-day EMA ($0.61) for the past few days. This suggests that every minor dip is being purchased. It enhances the prospects of a break above the 20-day EMA.
If that happens, it will suggest that the advantage has tilted in favor of the bulls. The XRP/USDT pair may rise to $0.64 and later to $0.67. This level may act as a minor roadblock, but if overcome, the pair may touch $0.74.
Contrarily, if buyers fail to propel the price above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that sellers have flipped the level into resistance. The pair may then descend to the solid support at $0.56.
Solana price analysis
The bears sold the rally to $62 on Nov. 29 and 30, but they could not sustain Solana (SOL) below $59. This suggests buying at lower levels.
The upsloping 20-day EMA ($55.66) and the RSI in the positive territory indicate that the bulls have the upper hand. That improves the prospects of a rally above $62.10. If that happens, the SOL/USDT pair may reach $68. The bulls will have to defend this level with all their might because a break above it will clear the path for a rally to $100.
The immediate support to watch on the downside is the 20-day EMA. If this level cracks, the pair may tumble to $51. The bears will have to yank the price below this level to start a deeper correction.
Cardano price analysis
Cardano (ADA) has been taking support at the 20-day EMA ($0.37) but the bulls are struggling to start a strong rebound off it. This suggests a lack of demand at higher levels.
The price has been squeezed between the 20-day EMA and the overhead resistance at $0.40. The gradually upsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI above 58 indicate that bulls have an edge. If buyers pierce the overhead resistance at $0.40, the bullish momentum may pick up, and the ADA/USDT pair may jump to $0.42 and subsequently to $0.46.
Contrarily, if the price skids below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest profit-booking by short-term traders. The pair may then slump to $0.34, where the bulls will try to arrest the decline.
Dogecoin price analysis
Dogecoin (DOGE) has been maintaining above $0.08 for the past four days, indicating that the bulls are not hurrying to book profits.
The rising 20-day EMA ($0.08) and the RSI above 62 indicate that bulls remain in command. Buyers will try to push the price to the psychological resistance of $0.10. There is a minor obstacle at $0.09 but it is likely to be crossed. Sellers are expected to mount a strong defense in the $0.10 to $0.11 zone.
The 20-day EMA is the crucial support to watch out for on the downside. If this level gives way, the DOGE/USDT pair may drop to the 50-day SMA ($0.07).
Related: Bitcoin ETFs, user experience will drive adoption — eToro CEO
Toncoin price analysis
Toncoin (TON) has been sustaining above the 20-day EMA ($2.38) for the past few days, but the up-move lacks momentum.
The 20-day EMA continues to slope up gradually, and the RSI is near 55, indicating that the bulls have a slight edge. Buyers will try to propel the price above $2.59 and complete the ascending triangle pattern. This bullish setup has a target objective of $3.58.
On the contrary, a slide below the uptrend line will invalidate the bullish triangle pattern. The failure of a bullish setup is a bearish sign, which could drag the TON/USDT pair toward the next major support at $1.89.
Chainlink price analysis
Chainlink’s (LINK) price is getting squeezed between the 20-day EMA ($14.19) and the overhead resistance of $15.40 for the past few days.
The upsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI in the positive zone indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside. If buyers overcome the barrier at $15.40, the LINK/USDT pair could climb to $16.60 and thereafter dash toward $18.30.
The first sign of weakness will be a break and close below the 20-day EMA. That could start a decline toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $12.83. This level is likely to attract aggressive buying by the bulls.
Avalanche price analysis
Buyers pushed Avalanche (AVAX) above the $22 resistance on Dec. 1, indicating strong demand at higher levels.
If the price closes above $22, it will increase the likelihood of a rally to $24.69. Sellers are expected to mount a strong defense at this level because a break above it could open the doors for a potential rally to $28.50.
If bears want to halt the uptrend, they will have to quickly pull the AVAX/USDT pair back below the 20-day EMA ($19.80). That may trigger stops of several short-term traders, resulting in a drop to $18.90.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
