Since March 2022, traders and so-called analysts have been forecasting a policy change or pivot from the United States Federal Reserve.
Apparently, such a move would prove that the Fed’s only available option is to print into oblivion, further diminishing the value of the dollar and enshrining Bitcoin (
On-chain data suggests it’s time to accumulate
On Nov. 1, Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards debuted a new on-chain metric called the Bitcoin Yardstick. According to Edwards, the metric takes “Bitcoin market-cap / hash rate, and normalized (divided by) the 2 year average” to essentially take “the ratio of energy work done to secure the Bitcoin network in relation to price.”
Edwards explains that “lower readings = cheaper Bitcoin = better value,” and in his opinion:
“Today we are seeing valuations unheard of since Bitcoin was $4 – $6K.”
Similar to Glassnode’s recent report, Edwards also believes that long-term holders have already capitulated. After citing the chart below, Edwards said:
“Net unrealized profit and loss (NUPL) is showing a washout in long-term holders. We have entered the capitulation zone (red) seen only once every 4 years in the past.”
As discussed in last week’s Bitcoin on-chain update, multiple on-chain metrics are at multi-year lows, and there is sufficient precedent to suggest upside gains far outweigh the downside potential at the moment.
Did Bitcoin’s MACD histogram turn bullish?
Another metric causing a buzz in trader circles is the moving average convergence divergence (MACD). Throughout the week, multiple traders cited the indicator, noting that a convergence between the signal line and MACD and the histogram turning “green” on the weekly timeframe as encouraging signs that Bitcoin is in a bottoming process.
While the indicator is not meant to be interpreted as a pure signal in isolation, crossovers on the weekly and monthly time frame, along with the histogram flipping from red to green, have usually been accompanied by a steady uptick in bullish momentum.
While data is unable to confirm whether a market bottom is truly in, comparing the current readings to previous market cycles and Bitcoin’s price action does suggest that BTC is undervalued in its current range.
BTC’s price may be carving out a bottom, but this does not rule out the possibility of the occasional crypto- and equities market-related sell-off that could catalyze a swift wick down to the yearly low.
This newsletter was written by Big Smokey, the author of The Humble Pontificator Substack and resident newsletter author at Cointelegraph. Each Friday, Big Smokey will write market insights, trending how-tos, analyses and early-bird research on potential emerging trends within the crypto market.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
