Just as New Jersey Democrats captured four of the states six Republican-held House seats when Donald Trump was president, Republicans hope to flip the script during Joe Bidens tenure.
Granted, the new congressional lines drawn by the states independent redistricting commission give Democrats an advantage in nine of the 10 districts they currently hold and the Republicans an edge in the two now represented by GOP lawmakers.
The odd man out is two-term Democratic Rep. Tom Malinowski in the 7th District, the only incumbent running in less-friendly territory. There, former state Senate Republican Leader Tom Kean Jr. is slightly favored in the only race rated as competitive by the Cook Political Report and Inside Elections, two Washington-based publications that track congressional contests.
But the political arms of both the House Democrats and Republicans have identified three other races that could be in play, most notably the 3rd District, where yacht company owner and former punk rocker Bob Healey Jr. is facing two-term incumbent Democrat Andy Kim. He and his family have spent millions of dollars from their own pockets to remain fiscally competitive.
Like Malinowski and Kim, the other two Democratic incumbents 5th District Rep. Josh Gottheimer and 11th District Rep. Mikie Sherrill were elected in what had been solidly Republican districts. All have raised millions of dollars for their re-election campaigns while the House Republicans have yet to financially support most of their nominees in the state.
For all the challengers in these districts, they have a shot, Republican consultant Mike DuHaime said in The Star-Ledger weekly column Friendly Fire. I think its tough but I think its closer than people think.
He said the midterms were turning much more on the economy and jobs and inflation and much of the national mood.
DuHaimes sparring partner, Democratic consultant Julie Roginsky, said a Republican victory will be a signal to Trump that the insurrection led by his supporters on Jan. 6, 2021, was nothing more than a blip.
They are running to empower a Republican majority that will effectively allow Donald Trump to say the following, Look, Jan. 6 was no big deal. The voters didnt care because they just rewarded our party with a majority Roginsky said.
Kean is the only House Republican challenger in the state who has relied on contributors rather than his own pockets to fund his campaign, and the national Republican Party has poured in millions of dollars to support him. House GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy of California and Republican National Committee chairwoman Ronna McDaniel have been among the prominent Republicans helping Kean.
Malinowski, meanwhile, raised more money through Oct. 19 than any other congressional candidate in the state. And while Republicans hammer him and other Democrats over inflation, Malinowski defends his support for billions of dollars in federal spending, saying the alternative was another great depression. Get politics news like this right to your inbox with the N.J. Politics newsletter. Add your email below and hit “subscribe”
Here are the other races in question:
Republican challenger Bob Healey, left, is looking to unseat Democratic U.S. Rep. Andy Kim, right, in the state's 3rd Congressional District.
3rd District: Rep. Andy Kim (D) vs. Bob Healey Jr. (R)
If the Republicans win back a second seat in New Jersey, its most likely to be this one because the GOP nominee, yacht company owner and former punk rocker Bob Healey Jr. and his family have been willing to spend millions of their own money to win. That funding has put Healey in a position to ride any Republican wave that might develop in the final days of the midterms.
If were going to see a second race come online, I would imagine it would be the Andy Kim seat, said Jacob Rubashkin, a reporter and analyst with Inside Elections. Ive had people mention to me that theyre paying attention to the Andy Kim race in a way they werent three months ago.
Still, Kim remains the favorite. A photo of the two-term incumbent picking up trash left behind by Trump supporters who stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, went viral and the suit he wore was requested by the Smithsonian Institution. A picture of that suit appears on Kims campaign website.
Many of his ads feature his family. Another one attacks Healey on abortion. One touts Kims successful efforts to cap out-of-pocket drug expenses for Medicare recipients. And he raised $6.5 million through Oct. 19 to put those ads on television.
Healey has kept pace with Kim financially, thanks to his and his mothers checkbooks. He lent his campaign $2.3 million and his mother seeded a super political action committee with $2 million more.
His ads attacked Kim on inflation and education and his support of President Joe Bidens spending plans.
He also ran an ad on crime, accusing Kim of being anti-police for backing legislation that responded to the killing of George Floyd and the subsequent outrage by stopping racial profiling, outlawing no-knock warrants, limiting the use of deadly force and reducing legal immunity.
Kim, endorsed by the New Jersey Fraternal Order of Police, supported billions of dollars in funding for local governments to avoid laying off police officers and voted to authorize grants for small police departments.
Republican Frank Pallotta, left, hopes to unseat Democratic U.S. Rep. Josh Gottheimer, right, in the state's 5th Congressional District.
5th District: Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D) vs. Frank Pallotta (R)
Gottheimer, the first Democrat to be elected from the district in 84 years, is one of the most prolific fundraisers in the House, leading all New Jersey congressional candidates with $13.7 million in the bank as of Oct. 19. He also received help from the House Democratic super PAC, which spent $2 million on his behalf.
He used some of his campaign funds to highlight Pallottas 2020 endorsement by Trump, and the retired investment banker defeated the House Republicans preferred candidate in the June primary for the GOP nomination. That set up a rematch with the candidate the Democrat easily defeated two years ago.
His ads have hit Pallotta on abortion, which became a potent issue after the U.S. Supreme Courts six Republican-nominated justices overturned the 49-year-old Roe v. Wade decision. Pallotta has the endorsement of the anti-abortion groups New Jersey Right to Life and National Right to Life.
Like other Republicans, Pallotta has made inflation a central theme of his campaign, tying Gottheimer to Biden and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif. But he has struggled to raise money to get his message out.
Democratic U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill, left, is being challenged by Republican hopeful Paul DeGroot in the state's 7th Congressional District.
11th District: Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D) vs. Paul DeGroot (R)
Sherrill, a former Navy veteran, has teamed up with other House Democrats with military or intelligence backgrounds to help steer the caucus in a more moderate direction.
They are receiving support from Shield PAC, a super political action committee that has spent $458,215 on behalf of Sherrill. Votevets.org, a progressive veterans group. spent $2.3 million on Sherrills behalf. The With Honor Fund, which supports military veterans in both parties, spent $323,993.
Thats in addition to the $7.5 million Sherrill has spent on her own campaign, swamping DeGroot, a former Passaic County assistant prosecutor. He touted his law enforcement bonafides as he campaigned as an outsider hoping to oust career politicians and cut spending to reduce inflation.
One contrasts his background with Sherrill, who has bought and sold defense stocks while serving on the House Armed Services Committee.
He has gotten no outside help.
Here are the other congressional races on the Nov. 8 ballot. All of the incumbents of both parties are strongly favored to win, as is lawyer Rob Menendez, son of U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez, in New Jerseys only open-seat contest. The avorites have filled up their campaign coffers while their challengers have struggled to raise money and the political parties have stayed out of those contests.
1st District: Democratic Rep. Donald Norcross is running like he is in a competitive race, spending $2.9 million, including on ads on abortion, health care, and Social Security and Medicare.
Retailer Claire Gustafson, who lost to Norcross in 2020, has hit Republican hot-button issues, such as gun rights, the economy, immigration and abortion. She was cited by the Federal Election Commission for failing to file her campaign finance disclosure reports on time. .
2nd District: Republican Rep. Jeff Van Drew has criticized Biden and House Democrats for their spending bills, which he opposed, though he did defy House Republican leadership and back the bipartisan infrastructure law.
Democratic nominee Tim Alexander has emphasized his background as a civil rights lawyer and former detective.
4th District: Republican Rep. Chris Smith, tied with Kentucky GOP Hal Rogers as the longest-serving member in the U.S. House, has called for a federal ban on abortion after 15 weeks if his party takes back the House.
Health and wellness consultant Matt Jenkins has criticized Smiths opposition to abortion rights.
6th District: Chair of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, Democratic Rep. Frank Pallone Jr.s website emphasizes some issues under the panels jurisdiction such as health care and the environment.
Monmouth County Commissioner Sue Kiley cited Pallones powerful position in blaming him for inflation and high gasoline prices.
8th District: Lawyer Rob Menendez is expected to succeed retiring Rep. Albio Sires and keep the district in Democratic hands. The younger Menendez raised $1.6 million for his campaign.
Republican Marcos Arroyo has not reported raising any money nor does he have a campaign website.
9th District: Democratic Rep. Bill Pascrell Jr. is one of the most outspoken opponents of Trump and his Republican allies, and his website reflects that. The top two stories are Pascrell calls for Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas to resign and for the bipartisan House select committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection to subpoena Thomas wife, Ginni.
Republican Billy Prempeh, who had ties to the right-wing QAnon conspiracy movement, was cited by the FEC for failing to file his disclosure forms on time. He has emphasized border security.
10th District: In addition to the usual topics such as health care, the economy and education, Democratic Rep. Donald Payne Jr.s list of issues includes environmental justice and civil and voting rights.
Republican David Pinckney did report raising any money nor does he have a campaign website.
12th District: Democratic Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman, the only New Jersey incumbent who did not raise at least $1 million, touted her support of Bidens $1.9 trillion coronavirus stimulus law even as Republicans blame the spending for inflation and unapologetically embraced progressive issues.
Republican businessman Darius Mayfield emphasized immigration at the southern border. He said on Twitter that the 2020 election was stolen and was named as an election denier by both FiveThirtyEight and the Washington Post.
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Jonathan D. Salant may be reached at jsalant@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @JDSalant.
